DON’T GET FOOLED: Understanding Black Swan Events

IN OUR “SUCCESS DURING TIMES OF COVID” WEBINAR SERIES: Week 1 is Winning the War on Your Mind.  I will cover how to overcome the Black Swan now and prepare of the Black Swan’s of the future.

WHAT IS A BLACK SWAN?

Covid-2020 is the classic Black Swan Event: a historic outlier, totally unexpected event, of great magnitude, and with extreme pervasive consequences to societies around the world.

THE HISTORY OF BLACK SWAN

Before 1697, it was universally believed that ALL swans had white feathers. Then,Willem de Vlamingh saw a black swan in Western Australia. This was an event that changed the world’s perception of the truth about swans.

Black swans became a metaphor for society’s global misconceptions, also called “logical fallacies.”  Logical fallacies are errors in people’s reasoning or mental programming that undermine real facts and logic. Ie: you can show people all of the facts in the world about the dangers of medications, vaccinations, and masks but since the bulk of humanity believes all of these are good; they carry on their convictions.

While everyone believed there were only white swans, it did not mean ALL swans were white.  

In his book, Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb brings up how Black Swans impact financial events, ultimately extending the metaphor to include 911, the 2007/8 financial crisis, and radical changes in society like the internet or the fall of the Berlin Wall. (BY THE WAY, THESE ALL CREATED MASSIVE “NEW NORMALS”)

The Black Swan problem:

• It is impossible to predict prior to its occurrence (Although many will state it should have been predicted after it occurs)
• Is an incredibly rare event possessing extreme, ubiquitous consequences
• Because of their lack of predictability, they can cause a colossal amount of economic, relational, and emotional damage.
• Traditional science and standard economic forecasting tools will only serve to create misguided realities and false security, leaving the populace even more vulnerable.
• They often reveal what is “silently wrong” with how agencies such as health care, education, food distribution, or economic markets believe and function.

HOW DO YOU COPE WITH OR PREPARE FOR A BLACK SWAN?

DON’T GET FOOLED! As Taleb mentions, “always assume a Black Swan is a possibility and plan accordingly.”

An area I cover with great consistency in my talks, books, and blogs is making sure you are a “Master of Change.” While Black Swan events are rare, they are relatively consistent and likely to grow in number and magnitude given the high-pressure cooker culture we are experiencing today. Additionally, there are many minor and mid-range events that while not as historic as a Black Swan, constantly change the economy, how we do business, and what is required to successfully relate to others and our world.

Change, ambiguity, turbulence, and chaos are guaranteed. Having the mindset, innovative abilities, and access to the right people and information are keys to not just surviving but thriving during change.

Even in the midst with of something as historically relevant as the Covid-2020 Black Swan, doctors, entrepreneurs, and many small and large companies having record-setting years, new and booming businesses are being launched every day, and ideas that could only have been successful in chaotic society are popping up everywhere.

You master change by preparing for anything and continually innovating and evolving – without losing your identity or chief principles.

You beat a Black Swan by WINNING THE WAR ON YOUR MIND.  Don’t miss this webinar!!